BG Elections 2009 rundown

For the uninitiated here is a basic guide to next months Bulgarian General Election.The runners and riders (yes Uncle is still obsessed with racing metaphors) are as follows:

BSP   The Bulgarian Socialist Party (formerly the BKP The Bulgarian Communist Party).The Party of the former Soviet era has tried to re-package itself as a western style Social Democratic Party, led by Sergei Stanishev.However most of the leadership are either former apparatchiks or their relatives.The BSP is part of the governing coalition with the DPS and NDSV.It is currently second in the opinion polls and has lost significant support though its base is with the elderly and poor and in rural areas.

GERB  This is a scratch party only formed in 2007.Its leader is the charismatic former Police Chief Boiko Borissov, who is currently Mayor of Sofia.He has an interesting background as bodyguard to the former dictator Todor Zhivkov and featured in 'Insurance' companies after the fall of communism. GERB pollled around 36% in the recent Euro polls and is considered centre right in the rather fluid world of Bulgarian politics.It will almost certainly feature in the new goverment probably in coalition with the so called 'Blue Coalition' of the rightwing SDS and DSB parties.

Blue Coalition.This is an electoral arrangement between the SDS/DSB featuring the former Prime Minister, and Dracula lookalike, Ivan Kostov.It will probably win 8-10% of the vote and will be a key player in the post election horse trading.

NDSV. Formerly called the National Movement Simeon II. This party is led by the eponymous former Tsar who was Prime Minister until 2007 in coalition with the DSP.The NDSV came to power full of promises but achieved virtually none of them (except getting some of Simeons property back from the state !).It was duly massacred at the polls in 2007 and now stands to gain around 8% of the vote.It is still in goverment but could easily switch to a GERB/Blue Coalition.

DPS. This party is supported mainly by the Turkish minority and the gypsies.It is particularly strong inthe South where the Turks are most numerous.It is led by the wily Ahmed Dogan and it was perceived political wisdom that no goverment could be formed without their vote.This time round they will get circa 18% of the vote, but could well be on the opposition benches.

Ataka. Last, but not least, of the major players is this extreme nationalist party led by Volen Siderov. It hates in order: Turks,Gypsies,Jews and everybody else. It feeds on the frustration that ordinary Bulgarians feel about corruption,poverty and crap goverment.It will get around 11% of the vote but no other party would go into any kind of governing coalition with it.

Whichever permutation forms the next government little will change, as Bulgarian politics is mainly about juvenile mud slinging and personal aggrandisement, not about competing political philosophies.IT'S JUST A QUESTION OF MOVING THE DECKCHAIRS AROUND.