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Sunday, 31 January 2010

Drip, Drip, Drip !

Well readers the Great Snow of 2010 is now over and the Great Thaw begins.My garden is slowly but surely turning into slush and the snow is gradually sliding off my roof a great slice of it is perching precariously off the edge and I dont want to be under it or else I will look like someone off a Mack Sennett silent movie !.(stop press there was just a loud bang and the snow and ice fell off)

So by tomorrow the roads will be flooded, and the benefit of taking off your shoes when you enter a house will become all too apparent.

I do hope that we have had the worst of the winter weather, but we have February to get through yet and I would not count upon it.

My hermit like existence in the past three weeks has not been helped by the fact that the satellite tv has started to take on a mind of its own, caused mainly by the icy winds knocking the dish out of kilter, so now it has to be manually adjusted every time I move satellites.

The village also ran out of most foodstuffs, the exception being bread.The bread van struggled through here every day which was a remarkable achievement.I now understand the national obsession with pickling everything; pickled runner beans and chillies are actually very nice.

More on the thaw later !.

Saturday, 30 January 2010

Interesting......

INSEAD Professor's Bid for Bulgarian Govt 'Frozen' over Speculations

INSEAD Professor Ilian Mihov announced Friday night that he was not going to join the Bulgarian government as a Deputy Prime Minister for the time being.

Speaking live on the bTV channel, Mihov said his bid to join the Borisov Cabinet was now "frozen".

He explained this was his personal decision that resulted largely from political speculations about how his joining the cabinet would affect the currency peg, and respectively, the economic stability in Bulgaria.

Mihov referred to the speculations in the Bulgarian media in which a number of critics raised their concerns saying that upon joining the Borisov Cabinet, the INSEAD professor would modify the currency peg in the country in dangerous ways. The grounds for such allegations were his past statements in which he recommended greater flexibility of the currency peg.

Mihov made it clear that his nomination to join the Bulgarian government as a Deputy Prime Minister was put on hold, not withdrawn. He told bTV he had not pulled out, and that PM Borisov had not terminated his invitation for him.

"Those speculations are a matter of a political attack. I have made it clear - as early as 2001 when I published an article about it - that I support the currency peg, and think that it is the greatest achievement of Bulgaria in the last few years. I don't want to abolish it or to change the current exchange rate. The idea of my joining the government is to help the cabinet team because there is a lot of work. I fail to comprehend those political speculations," Mihov said explaining this was what he told PM Borisov during their meeting on Thursday.

The INSEAD Professor made it clear that he could join the Bulgarian government once the country became part of the Eurozone waiting room - the ERM 2.

"Once we join it will be clear that the current exchange rates will be preserved, so there could be no speculations of my potential interference with the currency peg," Mihov said.

He stressed the fact that his decision to "freeze" his nomination was motivated by his concerns that heated internal debates over his potential intentions regarding the currency peg could be construed as a matter of instability that might hinder Bulgaria's accession to the ERM 2.

"The moment there are political machinations, there is a risk of economic instability and insecurity. There are no set criteria for joining the Exchange Rate Mechanism, admission is granted based on a country's stability. So if someone looks at Bulgaria from abroad and sees all the quarreling, they might think its stability is threatened," Mihov explained making it clear he preferred to step back temporarily if this could in any way jeopardize Bulgaria's chances to make progress towards adopting the euro.

Professor Mihov made it clear that he was going to continue to cooperate closely with the Borisov government.

In mid-January, Mihov was nominated by PM Borisov to become a new Bulgarian Deputy PM without a portfolio who would coordinate EU funds absorption, and would help Bulgaria adopt the euro. His nomination came to replace World Bank VP Kristalina Georgieva who was supposed to join the Borisov government in 2010 but instead became Bulgaria's new EC nominee.

Uncles Comment: The 'elephant in the room' here is that the Lev is overvalued against the Euro by around 20%, if not more this makes exports expensive and imports cheap.Not good in a recession, but other EU states will not allow devaluation because it will give the Bulgaians a competitive advantage, if you take away raw material costs rising like petrol which is increasingly priced in Euros.

Friday, 29 January 2010

Ceaucescu's Palace to be Mall ????

Silvius Prigoana thinks the parliament building where he serves as a liberal-democrat would make a great mall for citizens and tourists and a lot of money for Romania.

The lawmaker plans to submit a bill on the issue, which he claims will create more than 20,000 new jobs.

The idea for Romania's seat of parliament -- known in the communist era as the People's House and today as Parliament Palace -- has split politicians and the public.

A prosperous businessman with the backing of his peers in the commercial world, Prigoana argues that one of Bucharest's main tourist attractions is too expensive to maintain by the government. "From a public spending point of view, [it is] a catastrophe," he said.

The lawmaker noted that only 30% of the building is used, at a cost of more than 50m euros a year.

"When the state budget needs every penny, it is not permissible to ignore a potential for several hundred million euros per year," said Prigoana on his blog. "I consider less important the subsequent fate of the building or who will administer it … instead of spending public money, we make money for the budget."

Economists said that a shopping centre at the palace -- which would be four times larger than Afi Palace Cotroceni, currently the largest mall in southeast Europe -- could bring Romania 100m euros in annual revenue.

Many bloggers disagree.

"The building is part of Bucharest's history [and] identity … and is admired by foreigners. Why kill our history, tear the historic print of our city, seized by the post-1989 frustrations, to try to build a different Bucharest? A city lives with its history," said Ioana Despina Camino on her blog.

Daniela dislikes the commercial idea while imagining the building for more cultured purposes -- "a science centre: planetarium, aquarium, museum, exhibition halls, theatre and cinema halls, libraries". She does not believe anything will come of it.

Alinp noted tremendous sacrifices that went into constructing the building. "I say that no state institutions should function there. If what they say is true -- that the place was built with many human sacrifices and suffering -- then I think that any decision taken there is not for the country's benefit."

Journalist Costi Rogozanu took a worst case scenario perspective. "What if it doesn't work out? What if the business fails?" he said, warning of the risk of a "huge and deserted house, the symbol of Romanian capitalism, right at the very heart of the city".

Leon agreed -- at least in principle -- with Prigoana. "The man seems to be pragmatic. If they use only 30% of the building, why not use it all for a bigger profit? I am sure they won't lack customers.

Currency News

The Bulgarian government adopted a convergence programme for 2009-2012 on Wednesday (January 27th) to prepare the country for joining the European Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II) and the eurozone. The programme focuses on improved GDP performance, a balanced budget and stable government debt. The European Commission will assess it by the end of April before the start of negotiations for joining ERM II.

Monday, 25 January 2010

Mnogo Studeno

BULGARIA SEES RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES
Bulgaria registered record low temperatures early Monday morning, the coldest spot being the northwestern town of Knezha with -24,5 degrees Celsius.
The city of Veliko Tarnovo saw -21,2 degrees, Varna -17,8, the easternmost town of Shabla -19,2. The warmest place in the country was the southwestern town of Sandanski with -8 degrees.
The top record was set by the Bulgarian capital Sofia, which saw -15,2 degrees Celsius.
The temperatures expected around the country in the coming days are between -5 and -10/-15 degrees Celsius.

Uncles Comment : These are the temperatures WITHOUT windchill so it actually feels much colder.

Inspector Clouseau Reports !

EC INTERIM REPORT ABOUT BULGARIA, ROMANIA DUE IN FEBRUARY
The European Commission's interim report in connection with mechanisms for collaboration and control of internal affairs and justice systems in Bulgaria and Romania will be issued in February, according to reports.
The exact date has not been penciled in yet, the Bulgarian News Agency announced, citing well informed sources from the European Commission.
The reports will certainly be published after February 9, when the new Barroso II Commission is expected to be invested, the sources said.
This will be the first European Commission report to assess the measures undertaken by the new center-right government, which swept the elections in July and made an attempt to shake off the country's reputation for rampant graft and crime.
Bulgaria and Romania are still not doing enough to tackle corruption and organized crime, so they will have to accept European Union monitoring for at least another year, the EU's executive said in its latest annual report on the duo, released on July 22 last year.
Romania and Bulgaria joined the European Union on January 1, 2007 but owing to shortcomings in justice reform and dealing with corruption the commission has kept an eye on developments through a special monitoring mechanism.
Any failure to redress the problems means that surveillance will continue, a process which resulted in Bulgaria being deprived of hundreds of millions of euros in potential funds.

Uncles Comment : Keep your ears open for the sound of crap hitting the fan !.

Come Fly with me..

SOFIA AIRPORT HAPPY WITH Y/Y RESULTS
Sofia airport has served 3.134 million passengers in 2009, marking a 3% decrease over the previous year in what has been described as “better than expected results”.
The number of served flights went down by 6%, totaling 45 698, while the processed cargo recorded a fall of nearly 20%, standing at 15120 tons.
Exerts commented that the losses that the airport has suffered due to the global economic crisis are less than expected.
Twenty-eight Bulgarian and foreign air companies have served domestic and international flights as scheduled. Another ten companies have served summer and winter charter programs, while the cargo flights have been served by six specialized air companies.
Former national carrier Bulgaria Air holds a 26% market share in the number of served passangers from and to Sofia airport, leading the top five list. Low-coast Wizz Air comes in second at 16%, followed by Lufthansa, Europe's second-largest airline (11%) and no-frills easyJet (8%).

Uncles Comment  : Note the 24% market share for budget airlines . Let us hope that Varna and Burgas go down the same route.

Real Estate

Banks' Attitude to Determine Bulgaria 2010 Real Estate Market

Properties
The future of the Bulgarian real estate market in 2010 will depend on the attitude and behavior of the banks, leading real estate experts forecast.
The experts, cited by the Bulgarian news agency BTA, spoke during a press conference Monday, saying the financial institutions' actions will determine if there will be stability and growth after the end of the crisis or chaos and low prices.
If in the next few months the banks decide to list on the market the foreclosed properties and sell them fast, the collapse will become inevitable. But if they find a mechanism to hold those properties for a while, the supply can be significantly reduced.
According to one of the largest brokerage agencies in Bulgaria - “Address”, the market now is experiencing a complete shortage of the most desirable properties – 2-bedroom apartments in districts with good infrastructure and such listings sell in less than a week. If the shortage continues, the discrepancy between the “good” and the “bad” properties will deepen, "Address" experts say..
72% of the perspective buyers in the capital Sofia and the Black Sea city of Varna are looking for an apartment listed for up to EUR 40 000 while in the second largest city of Plovdiv and the other Black Sea city of Burgas the desired price is only up to EUR 25 000. In addition, those willing to upgrade to a larger or more luxurious property, are almost non-existent now, compared to a few months ago.
In Bulgaria's largest cities EUR 40 000 can buy a 60 square-meter panel apartment or 45 square-meter one in a newly constructed building. In smaller cities and towns, buyers are not in a hurry to make a deal and wait for another price reduction.
According to “Address” data, the price reduction in 2009 is 28% year on year. In Sofia's “Ovcha Kupel,” “Nadezhda,” and “Lyulin” districts the prices are down 30%. There is also a price slump even for attractive downtown Sofia locations.
Data from the National Statistics Institute (NSI) shows that the average housing price in 2009 for the entire country has been BGN 1002 per square meter. The prices are the highest in Varna - BGN 1686 per square meter, followed by Sofia – BGN 1585, and Burgas – BGN 1360.

Bulgaria Top for Hookers !

BULGARIA - EUROPE'S THIRD-BIGGEST EXPORTER OF PROSTITUTES
Bulgaria is the third-biggest exporter of prostitutes for Western Europe, a survey has found out in a grim side-effect of the former communist country’s entry into the European Union and the start of visa-free travel in 2007.
A survey by Tempep, an EU-funded network of sex industry health agencies, found that one in eight foreign prostitutes in Europe was Romanian, replacing Russians as the main nationality since the previous assessment in 2006.
The report assessed that about two fifths of Britain’s estimated 80,000 prostitutes were migrants, most commonly from Lithuania, Thailand and Poland. The proportion of foreign prostitutes was highest in London at 70-80 %. Few British women had worked as prostitutes abroad - about 5 % - with the most common destinations given as Spain, Ireland and Australia.
Bulgaria, which ranked at number four in 2006, the year before its accession to the European Union, now accounts for eight percent of the migrants total.
The top ten of the list also features Ukraine, Nigeria, Brazil, Belarus, Moldova, Poland, Hungary and Thailand.

Sunday, 24 January 2010

Cold weather brings grim news

BUCHAREST, Romania/ANKARA, Turkey/SOFIA, Bulgaria -- Five people have died due to severe weather in Romania, authorities announced Saturday (January 23rd). A 65-year-old homeless man was found dead in Bucharest early on Saturday. Two other men -- 70 and 72 -- died in the Mehedinti and Alba regions. Two others were found dead in Arges and Bacau. The health ministry advised all Romanians, especially the elderly and children, to avoid going outside.
Turkey has been gripped by severe cold and two people have been reported dead while dozens more have sought help at hospitals. Heavy snowfall and strong winds have paralysed life in many regions, including Istanbul. In Bulgaria, a homeless man was found dead in Sofia, where temperatures have been reported at 20 below zero Celsius. (RIA-Novosti, BNT - 24/01/10; AFP - 23/01/10)

Package Holidays your having a laugh !

Just when you thought that the Bulgarian Tourism industry might be getting a small dose of realism they get the rumbles of greed in their bloated stomachs.I came across a 'bargain' offer, a week B&B in a two star in Golden Sands ONLY 329 quid.This is supposed to be cheap ?, pull the other one its got bells on, and yet by June they will be virtually giving hotel rooms away because of under-occupation.If they had any sense they would sell weeks like that for 199 pounds, they will get the rest of the money in bar bills !.No wonder people are going to Blackpool its probably cheaper for a beer than Albena !.

Uncles Comment: Make me Chief of the Bulgarian Tourist board and i'll get it sorted !.

Weather latest

It appears that the current extremely cold snap (-19 C today) will break on Friday. Prepare for the floods now, but at least those of you with flights booked can heave a sigh of relief.Hoever we still have 5 weeks of what I would call winter left so be warned !.

Friday, 22 January 2010

New Property Law delayed till May-Earliest

The new law requiring all property transactions to be through bank accounts, to reduce fraud, will not be operational till May/June according to parliament sources.The idea was to abolish the cash only tax avoidance deals that are normal in Bulgaria.The new system, based upon the French, one is flawed in that you can pay X through the bank accounts and thus for tax,but actually top it up with a cash payment of Y so not alot different to the current set up.

VAT Cut

BULGARIA PLANS TO CUT VAT TO 16% BY 2013
Bulgaria's finance minister has announced that Value-Added Tax (VAT), which currently stands at 20%, could be cut to 16% by the end of the new center-right government in 2013.
“The value-added tax will be reduced by 2% in 2011 and by another 2% over the next two years,” Simeon Djankov said in an interview for Darik radio.
The statement comes ten days after the proposal for gradual VAT reduction, which has drawn mixed responses in the country.
The idea for reducing Value-Added Tax (VAT) in Bulgaria from its current 20 % rate by the end of 2010 was announced after Prime Minister Borisov's meeting with Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu, who made this recommendation as a measure to fight the financial crisis.
“This is not a bad idea, but we knew about it before Netanyahu told us,” Djankov added.
Bulgaria has the lowest personal and corporate income tax in the EU at 10%, which was introduced at the beginning of 2008, replacing the previous system, which combined several different tax rates - between 20 and 24%, depending on income.
After coming into office, the new Bulgarian government announced it plans to keep unchanged the flat income tax rate and cut the Value-Added Tax (VAT) from the current 20% to 18% in 2010 and by a further 2% by the end of the term of office of Prime Minister Boyko Borissov’s administration.
The country will apply in January this year to join the exchange-rate mechanism, the two-year currency stability test prior to euro adoption, and seek to switch to the common currency by 2013.

Uncle's Comment: Note the last point 2013 is the target date for the Euro.

Money Money Money !

Moody’s raises outlook on Bulgaria’s ratings
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday said it has increased to positive from stable the outlook on Bulgaria's Baa3 ratings.
“The rating action restores the positive outlook that was in place prior to the financial crisis in September 2008. This is also the first positive rating action on an EU sovereign since July 2008”, the agency said.
In early December, Standard & Poor’s changed its outlook on Bulgaria’s rating to stable from negative to reflect the government’s fiscal policy.
Moody’s said the rating increase is contingent upon the government’s capacity to lead the economy back to the growth path.
The Bulgarian government's finances were relatively resilient through the 2008-09 financial crisis," said Kenneth Orchard, Vice-President/Senior Credit Officer in Moody's Sovereign Risk Group.
"Despite a deep recession, Bulgaria will have very low budget deficits by global standards in 2009 and 2010, keeping government debt ratios low and stable,” he added.
Brussels estimated in November that Bulgaria will run up a budget deficit of 1.2% of its GDP in 2010 and just 0.4% in 2011.

On the piste


Tourism pins hopes on Balkans
More than half of the tourists in Bulgaria’s upscale ski resort of Bansko, in the west, come from Greece, confirming projections that the winter sector’s performance hinges on regional markets. Airports in Sofia and Plovdiv say if charter flights are filled to full capacity, Bulgaria will welcome no more than 65,000 holidaymakers for the whole winter season. The ski resorts of Borovets, Pamporovo and Bansko can sleep 38,000 people a day, according to official statistics. Alternative markets such as Greece, Romania, Macedonia and Serbia have seen an increase since the start of the winter season even though they cannot offset the expected decline in tourist numbers. As they grope for a way out of the economic tumult, Bulgarian tourist firms are getting more flexible, launching for the first time winter all-inclusive packages and adding various extras.

Wednesday, 20 January 2010

Economics

Two interesting developments from the UK.First of all unemployment actually fell by 7000 in the Sept-Nov quarter.This is unexpected as unemployment was meant to be on a solid upward curve well into 2010.
Secondly the unexpectedly high inflation figure of 2.9% that was recently announced has fuelled speculation that UK interest rates are about to rise.The side effect of this is that the pound stands at 2.22lv, its highest in months.

That was the good news, the bad news is that Colliers International are predicting a further 10% property price fall in Bulgaria in 2010 However there appears to be a consensus now among the more reliable observers, that 2010 will see the bottoming out of the market. This could be the beginning of the end of the slump.

More weather...

It looks as if flights into Varna are being cancelled, I just noticed Bulgaria air have cancelled their internal flight from Sofia.Please check before travelling, especially internationally, if you do get stranded at least hotels in Sofia are plentiful and cheap.Easyjet have just opened a hotel in Sofia check that out, prices start at 10 Euro's per night.If not the Hotel Pliska is cheap and cheerful and close to the airport (circa 10 minutes).

I just checked the local forecast for Varna and its worse, snow everyday till Monday, night-time temperatures down to -11 C (without windchill).Still its good news for the ski resorts (if the greek farmers aren't blocking the border).

If there are any further important travel updates I will try and post them here.

Weather News

EASTERN BULGARIA GRIPPED BY HEAVY SNOW
Eastern Bulgaria woke up Tuesday in the grip of a heavy snow storm with treacherous roads, power outages and canceled school classes.
In the Region of the Black Sea City of Burgas, about 20 towns and villages are without electricity and schools in several villages are closed over impassable roads. The worst conditions are reported in the Ruen municipality where only 3 villages can be reached by car and many abandoned vehicles can be seen on the icy roads.
All roads around the city of Burgas are passable, so is the main road Burgas-Sofia.
In the other Black Sea city of Varna, the Mayor issued an order to close all schools. The decision about school closures on Wednesday will be announced by 5 pm. The day care centers in Varna are, however, open and public transportation is running, but experiencing delays. The ambulances are running as well. Snow plows, controlled by a GPS system, have been cleaning all through the night and are continuing work.
Heavy snow is reported in the Sliven, Slistra, and Ruse Regions but all roads are passable. Trucks have been stuck in several locations in the Silistra Region where a number of schools are closed.
The Regions of Dobrich, Yambol, and Shumen are also experiencing heavy snow and road closures. Bus transportation to a number of villages there has been canceled.
In the Stara Zagora Region driving through the Shipka Mountain pass is reported as very difficult; all vehicles must use chains while the road is closed for heavy trucks and tractor-trailer’s. The “Trakiya” highway is open for all traffic.
In Sofia, the situation is reported as normal with public transportation running on time. The Deputy Mayor informs all streets where public transportation vehicles are running have been cleaned by 4 am.

Tuesday, 19 January 2010

Breaking News: Rumiana Jeleva nomination fails

Bulgaria's nominee for European Commissioner has resigned her nomination and resigned as Foreign Minister.This comes after rumours over her and her husbands business dealings and her competency levels to fulfill her brief. CORRECTION: It appears that Jeleva has not resigned as Foreign Minister despite an official press release.So it appears she will remain as a sort of dejected house poodle for the PM.

This is a major embarassment for Bulgaria.

To my exasperation it now transpires that Jeleva has resigned as Foreign Minister to be replaced by the Defence Minister Mladenov, a General replaces him.